For long-term investors and active traders, options included
Are your returns skill or luck?
Whether you buy and hold, collect dividends or trade options every week, Pebble connects to your broker and works out your real returns, your risk, and whether your results are bigger than luck alone would explain.
Skill check against S&P 500 (SPY)
Ahead, but not yet proven
You are ahead of the benchmark, but by an amount luck could easily produce over about 21 months (t = 1.12, p = 0.26). If the same pattern held, roughly 3.8 more years of data would make it clear.
- Alpha (yearly)
- +19.2%
- Beta
- 1.88
- t-stat
- 1.12
- p-value
- 0.26
Works with
The brokers you already use.
Sign in once and your history arrives on its own. Interactive Brokers reads in through a free report you set up once. There is nothing to export and nothing to type in.
Schwab
Interactive Brokers
Fidelity
Robinhood
AJ Bell
Chase
E*Trade
moomoo
Questrade
tastytrade
Trading212
Wealthsimple
Wells Fargo
Bux
DEGIRO
Empower
Public
Stake Australia
TD Direct Investing
Vanguard US
Webull
Zerodha
Connections run through SnapTrade, our data partner, and how far back your history goes depends on the broker. Broker names and logos belong to their owners and are shown only to say which brokers can be connected.
What you get
Honest numbers, and an honest answer.
Your broker, connected
Link an account and your trades, deposits, withdrawals and account value arrive on their own each night. There is nothing to export and nothing to type in. The connection is read-only: it can look at your history but cannot place trades or move money.
Numbers you can trust
Time-weighted return that keeps your deposits out of your performance. Sharpe, Sortino and information ratio, your worst fall, and alpha and beta against a benchmark you pick. Then a statistical skill test that asks how easily luck could have produced your result.
A guide to your numbers
With Pro, a plain-English review explains your record in ordinary words: what happened, how bumpy the ride was, and whether the result stands out from chance. Ask about your portfolio or any number on the page and get an answer about your own account. It explains; it never tells you what to buy, sell or hold.
What a review reads like
Every sentence comes from your own numbers, and every review ends the same way, so it is always clear what it is and what it is not.
Adjusting for the money you added and took out, your account returned +49.4% the past 12 months, against +16.2% for the S&P 500 (SPY). Net deposits over the period were $0, which are not counted as performance.
Day to day, returns moved with an annualised volatility of 21.8% and a Sharpe ratio of 1.79. The deepest fall from a peak was 12.6%, from Mar 11, 2026 to Mar 30, 2026, and it was regained by Apr 9, 2026.
You are ahead of the benchmark, but by an amount luck could easily produce over 12 months (t = 1.77, p = 0.08). If the same pattern held, roughly 0.3 more years of data would make it clear. A record under a year is short, and short records flatter luck, so give this less weight.
Educational analysis of past data. Not investment advice.
Trade review
Not just how you did. How you traded.
Every position you opened and closed, set against the plain alternative. Did selling pay off, or would holding on have done better? Did you give back gains? Did your picks beat the index? Did your options beat simply owning the shares, LEAPS included?
Every answer says which way it went: green when your choice came out ahead, red when the plain alternative would have done better. It is a record of what happened. Hindsight makes every choice look clearer than it was, so it never tells you what to do next.
Sample account
- Did selling pay off?
- 57 of the 73 stocks you sold kept going your way over the next 30 days. Over those days, the same money in SPY would have made $15,308.
- Did you give back gains?
- Your 76 share trades that were ever in profit were up $42,159 at their best and finished at +$19,576. 2 of them were up 5% or more and still ended in a loss.
- Did options beat shares?
- Your options made +$845. The same bets made with shares would have made +$1,844.
- How much premium did you keep?
- of the $5,089 you collected selling options. None of the contracts you sold was assigned.
How it works
Connect once. It runs itself.
- 1
Connect a broker
Sign in on a secure page run by your broker or by our data partner, SnapTrade. We never see your password. With Interactive Brokers, you set up a free report once, about ten minutes, and paste in the token it gives you.
- 2
We do the maths overnight
Your history is kept exactly as your broker sent it, and every number is worked out again from that. No spreadsheets and no formulas to fix.
- 3
Read the verdict
See your returns, your risk, and a plain answer to the question most trackers skip: is this more than luck?
Questions
Good to know.
Is this investment advice?
No. It describes what already happened in your account. It does not recommend buying, selling or holding anything and it does not predict prices. The AI reviews follow the same rule.
How does the skill-or-luck test work?
We compare your daily returns with a benchmark such as the S&P 500, then measure the part of your result the market's moves do not explain. That leftover is called alpha. A t-statistic and a p-value say how easily luck could produce a leftover that size. A t-stat above 2 or below −2 is the usual line for "not random". Often the honest answer is "not enough data yet", and we will tell you roughly how much more it would take.
Does it cover options?
Yes. Your account value already includes what your options did, and option trades, expiries, assignments and exercises are part of the history we read. The trade review shows how much premium you kept on options you sold, how closing early compared with holding to expiry, and whether your options did better than the same bets made with shares.
Which brokers work?
The 22 shown above connect through our data partner SnapTrade. Most use a sign-in on your broker's own page. A few, such as Vanguard US, Wealthsimple and DEGIRO, take your broker username and password on SnapTrade's secure page instead, which we never see. Interactive Brokers connects through a free report you set up once. How much history each broker shares varies.
Can it trade or move my money?
No. The connection is read-only.
What will it cost?
Two plans, each with a 7-day free trial, paid monthly or yearly: Core for one account, and Pro for several accounts with the plain-English guide. The pricing page shows what each one includes.
What happens to my data?
It is used to work out your numbers and for nothing else. Before anyone connects an account we will publish a privacy policy naming every service that touches your data, and you can delete everything yourself from your account, at any time.
Is the demo real?
Partly. The demo account follows a real account's day-by-day returns (one of ours), started at $145,000, so its return, alpha and risk figures are real. The holdings and trades are made up. Every number comes out of the same maths that will run on yours.
Find out which it is.
Create an account to see your own, or look around a sample account first.